Tuesday, April 24, 2018


Football Divisional Playoffs Trends and Odds

January 15, 2016 by  
Filed under Handicapping, NFL Football, Tips & Tricks

NFL playoffs

As we move into the football Divisional playoff round, leaving only eight teams as they will compete for the four spots in the Conference championships, and possibly get to the Super Bowl. With everything that comes with single elimination playoffs, this will be a tough one to predict. For those looking to bet on the matches, there are a few historic trends when it comes to these playoffs:

  • The last ten Wild Card teams to win in the first round of the playoffs went 4-6 straight-up and 7-2-1 against-the-spread in the Divisional Round.
  • The last ten No. 1 seeds in the NFL Playoffs have gone 6-4 straight-up and 2-7-1 against-the-spread in the Divisional Round.
  • All-time in the playoffs, teams that won by three touchdowns or more and then are underdogs the next game went 15-27 straight-up and 16-26 against-the-spread.
  • The last ten favorites of a touchdown or greater in the Divisional Round went 7-3 straight-up but 3-6-1 against-the-spread.

This means that most of the games played this weekend fall under one or more of those trends, so handicapping could be focused on what the historical data has shown, although it doesn’t always mean that it will be accurate. It also depends on the odds given to each match-up:

Match Spread Totals
Chiefs at Patriots Patriots (-4) 43
Packers at Cardinals Cardinals (-7) 49
Seahawks at Panthers Panthers (-1) 44
Steelers at Broncos Broncos (-7.5) 38.5

The odds have been shifting since the start of the week, as the Panthers started with a (-3) spread, and the Patriots had a (-5.5) spread, so it looks like the sportsbooks are starting to see exactly where people are betting, and it seems the underdogs for those two games are being heavily bet on. The Patriots have an injured team going against the Chiefs, who have won 11 consecutive games and scored 30-0 last week. The Seahawks and Panthers are evenly matched, which is why their odds are so close; as they have the top defenses in the league it is no surprise that the Over/Under would be low.

It will be a great weekend of football, as the competition get fiercer and the prize is just that much bigger. Be sure to know your stats and other handicapping information, or it could bite you in the ass when the whistle blows.

10 Stats From 2014 That Can Help Your 2015 Fantasy Football Team

July 17, 2015 by  
Filed under Fantasy Football, Tips & Tricks

Fantasy Football picks

With the 2015 Pro Football season about to start, it is important for all of those fans that enjoy the competition that fantasy sports gives them, need to learn from the past, so they can better prepare for the future. 2014 was a great year to gauge for new players, as well as see which players may be worth more this year due to great performances.

Some players may fly under the radar due to some specific stats that don’t allow fans to see their great overall performances, and this could hurt you if some other person drafts them. However, there are other players that are hyped to be good, but when you look at their overall performance, they don’t really have what it takes. Here are ten stats, that you may or may not know already, about some players that performed well or not.

Players To Consider

Player

POS

Total NEP

Ranking

Eddie Lacy

RB

Reception: 34.56

3rd among RB

Jimmy Graham

TE

Reception Per Target: 0.59

15th among TE

Le’Veon Bell

RB

Total: 82.85

38th in NFL

Dereck Anderson

QB

Passing Per Drop Back: 0.35

1st in NFL

Antonio Brown

WR

Reception: 0.84

Receptions: 112

8th in NFL

1st in NFL

Calvin Johnson

WR

Reception: 0.82

Success Rate: 98.59%

10th in NFL

2nd in NFL

Aaron Rodgers

QB

Total: 214.26

Passing: 188.41

1st in NFL

10th in NFL

Players To Avoid

Andre Ellington

RB

Rushing: -28.34

Worst in NFL

Devonta Freeman

RB

Rushing: -18.80

Success Rate: 24.62%

3rd Worst in NFL

Worst in NFL

Blake Bortles

QB

Passing: -97.97

5th Worst in NFL

You may want to take a risk on the players that seem to have gone under the radar, even when their performance is on par with those star players. In the end, when participating in fantasy football, it is important to get results from each individual player that you draft, as their performance will give you the necessary points to win.

How do Bookmakers Make Money?

September 8, 2010 by  
Filed under Tips & Tricks

In general a bookmaker or “bookie” is someone who takes wagers on sporting events and who operates at a local or regional level. He is someone who is living in your neighborhood, or is at least close enough to be dealing with the same population group on a more or less consistent basis. He knows his customers fairly well, perhaps on a first name basis, and knows the betting patterns of the people he does business with.

In contrast to sportsbooks, bookies are typically not the ones who come up with all the betting lines. Bookies usually adopt betting lines that have been published by sportsbooks and then take bets using those odds. They do this because the creation of an entire set of betting lines is a task that is too sophisticated for the average bookie to handle. This doesn’t mean however that the bookie is not allowed to set his own betting lines. In fact bookies often depart from the sportsbooks odds significantly when they feel it can make them more money. But the odds published by Vegas sportsbooks or online sportsbooks are usually the starting point for the bookie.

Bet on NFL Football at Bodog Sportsbook

Bookies try to make their money the same way the sportsbooks do. They take action on both teams and make money on the standard (-110) wagering odds. But bookies are usually small operations compared to a sportsbook. That gives them the ability to adjust quickly to market conditions and to charge different customers different rates. And that’s where bookies can increase their income.

Many bookies will adjust the point spread in their favor based on their location. If located in or near a big city for example, a bookie can be reasonably sure that a lot of people are going to bet on the local team. They therefore change the point spread and make it more difficult for the home team to cover. This practice is sometimes known as “shaving points” and is very common.

Consider a bookie who lives in Chicago. He knows that during football season a lot of bets will be placed on the Chicago Bears when they host the Green Bay Packers because the Bears are a home town favorite. As an example let’s say that most online sportsbooks are listing the Bears as 3½ point favorites over the Packers, so the Bears might be shown as -3½ (-110) meaning that you risk $110 that the Bears will win by 4 or more points. A Chicago bookie however might push the point spread to 4½ points. And bookies will adjust the odds for all kinds of wagers, not just the point spread. If the money line were (-110) as in the above example, a Chicago bookie might push it to (-130) or (-150).

Bet the NFL Regular Season at Bodog Sportsbook

Dealing with a local bookie can have advantages as well as disadvantages. For one thing, bookies usually don’t require that you pay the money up front when you are placing a bet. That’s not a problem if you win, but it can create a situation where some people bet more than they have to spend, and if their bet loses the scene can be uncomfortable. Another thing about using a local bookie is that he may get to know your betting patterns. If you consistently bet on the favorites, your bookie may pick up on this and offer a deal that’s worse than you could find at any sportsbook.

On the positive side, getting to know a local bookie can also get you better deals than you might find at a sportsbook if you are a good customer. To keep your business the bookie may offer you slightly better odds than the usual betting lines. And since bookies have the flexibility to offer deals on a case by case basis, don’t be afraid to ask him which team he needs more bets to be placed on. If it turns out that he needs more bets on the team you want to wager on, he might very well give you better odds in order to close the deal.

Sports Betting – Handicapping

September 7, 2010 by  
Filed under Tips & Tricks

Handicapping is very simply the attempt to predict the outcome of sporting events. And though we include this article on handicapping in a section that is dedicated to outlining winning strategies for sports betting, the sad fact is that many handicappers offer a losing strategy. When it comes to handicappers, or “touts” as they are sometimes called, oftentimes your winning strategy is to recognize how many of them are fraudulent. This article will show you just how to do that, and conversely how to recognize a good handicapper.

Bet the NFL Regular Season Now – Click HERE

Sports betting is a big money business and as you might expect wherever you find big money you find con artists. Out of the 3000 or so handicappers working in the US these days only a very few are experienced, knowledgeable sports analysts with good records in picking winners. The number of handicappers continues to grow almost daily, and most of them use the same old tricks to get hold of your money. There are probably a hundred different ways these scam artists try to sucker you out of your cash but their methods usually fall into three most common practices. Those three schemes are; claiming an unrealistic winning percentage, using high pressure sales and giving picks for both sides of a game or series of games.

Claiming a 70% success rate – For some reason, a lot of touts have settled on 70% as a nice round number to advertise as a success rate for their sports picks. For an even more mysterious reason, a large segment of the betting public seems to believe them. If you have read even half of the articles posted on this website you know that the number of factors that can influence the outcome of any given sporting event are varied and any one of them can completely upset the odds. For anyone to claim that they can consistently pick sports winners in 7 out of every 10 games under these conditions is just too absurd for words.

We have already seen that the most profitable sports bettors got that way by Bankroll Management and by making conservative picks in order to achieve a solid 55% winning percentage. Perhaps you have dug yourself a hole by betting too much on a single game or by failing to secure the proper odds from the available betting lines. Do yourself a favor and don’t compound your mistake by chasing after lost money while clinging to a hope that your handicapper can predict winners at a rate never before accomplished in the history of sports betting. If he really could pick 70% winners he would be betting on his picks, not selling them to you.

Bet the NFL Regular Season at Bodog Sportsbook

High Pressure Sales – You may have seen advertisements for free sports picks on an 800 number. They may boast about having a great success rate or having the inside track on some information that will guarantee them to win some particular game. But what’s much more likely is that they are a shop with a bunch of sales agents who don’t have any better ideas about who will win this weeks Green Bay Packers game than you do. If you are going to be honest with yourself you probably need to admit that when you are out looking for free picks you have probably had a run of losses and are trying to get some of that money back. In such a situation you may well grasp at what these guys are selling.

The worst part of this scenario is not simply that you have spent money on a product that is basically worthless, it’s the aftermath. Even if you decide that the service was a rip off and you are determined never to speak to them again, they have other plans in mind. Often as not they have sold your contact information to a network of touts as unreliable as they are. Or they might call you using a different name and try to get more money out of you. You might actually have to disconnect your phone in order to get rid of them.

Picking both sides of the line – This is one of the favorite tricks used by no talent handicappers. Let’s say that the Bears are playing the Chiefs this weekend. When someone calls in looking for a free pick, these scam artists will tell half their callers that the Bears are guaranteed to win. Then they will tell the other half of their prospects that the Chiefs are guaranteed to win this one. The group that loses their bets will be angry but will not be able to do much about it except promise themselves never to call these crooks again. But the other half of bettors will win their bets and they may now believe that this service is the best thing since sliced bread. Now they are willing to pay hard cash for the next pick, and they will do so long as they are in the winning group. The handicapper meanwhile just keeps churning the incoming calls into more money while offering absolutely nothing of value.

The bottom line is that if a handicapper’s promises look too good to be true they probably are. If you really must seek out a handicapper to get your picks, make sure and find one who is honest. Look for realistic percentages and also for facts about how the games are analyzed. If you see reasonable assumptions based on player performance and power rankings factored into a handicappers picks then you are probably on the right track.

Take the Time Out for Careful Football Handicapping for Best Results

August 17, 2009 by  
Filed under Tips & Tricks

Football handicapping. It sounds awfully difficult and time-consuming, doesn’t it? No, football handicapping has nothing to do with injuring players or preventing them from playing as the name might suggest. To the contrary, football handicapping is about studying trends and injuries as well as past performance of professional football players so that you can make more accurate predictions of what might be to come.  For those who are betting on professional football games, knowing a bit about pro football handicapping is of the utmost importance.

Good handicapping skills come with time and experience, but there is one thing that always remains the same – no matter how effective a handicapper you are – when you put more time into football handicapping, you get more return. Taking a quick glance at the stats from the last week and placing your bet is not effective handicapping. As a matter of fact, it really isn’t handicapping at all.

If you are not putting much effort into handicapping, consider the fact that you may not get much return on it. Part-time handicapping efforts beget part-time results, usually equating to little or no results at all.

The moral of the story is this: if you want to get the best results from your football handicapping endeavors, schedule a block of time for it. When handicapping, take careful consideration of past performances, past and current injuries, risk and predictions by those who really know what they are talking about. As time goes on and you begin to notice trends, handicapping will become less of a chore. Until then, don’t be afraid to devote a little time to it.

Pro Football Handicapping: Tips and Tricks of the Trade

August 17, 2009 by  
Filed under Tips & Tricks

When it comes to betting on football, if you want to be successful on a consistent basis, there are really only two options: be some kind of psychic genius or invest some time and money into pro football handicapping. At its most basic, football handicapping is about making educated predictions for the purposes of betting. Many people bet on their favorite teams, or the teams that have done the best so far. This type of wagering works fine for those who are betting on winning or losing teams, but for any bet more involved than that, handicapping may be a good idea.

One of the best tips for beginning gamblers is to hire a professional to do the handicapping for you. While professional handicappers do cost money, they can also help you to win money. If you are new to betting let alone the sport of football, the services of a professional handicapper are imperative.

Handicapping is about using all the available information at hand to make the most logical pick for a bet. Success in pro football handicapping boils down to a few key points:

  • If you don’t know what you are doing, hire somebody to do the handicapping for you.
  • Don’t think you can rush through handicapping. When you start losing money, you will see why.
  • If at first you don’t succeed, try and try again. This applies to a lot, but when it comes to sports you win some and you lose some.

Top Sports Handicappers: How to Know Who to Choose

August 17, 2009 by  
Filed under Tips & Tricks

If you are looking to place bets on professional football match-ups you will find that success in doing so will take a bit more than good guessing skills. If you are a sports aficionado, it may be possible to be your own football handicapper. Handicapping takes a pretty comprehensive knowledge of the sport in general, past picks, injuries, and other vital stats.

When evaluating sports handicappers online, take a look at their picks. They should have a fairly good track record. Keep in mind that a great deal of betting is about chance, so no handicapper should have a perfect track record. If they tell you their track record is perfect, you can be fairly certain that they are not telling the truth.

Another thing to consider when dealing with handicapping services or professional handicappers is rapport. When you have email or telephone communications with them, do you feel like you can trust them or their company? Do you feel confident in their abilities to deliver the results that you are looking for? Your handicapper should be somebody that you can trust with your money and put faith into. Evaluating someone’s trustworthiness is about gut feelings, but so is betting.

With consideration to all of these things and more, some of the top sports handicappers available online are:

Pro View Picks

Vegas Edge

10 Star Picks

NSA Football Picks Service

Keep in mind that not every handicapper is perfect. Use these guidelines and your own discretion when searching for the right handicapper for your needs.

My Handicapper Just Had An Awful Week: Should I Fire Him?

August 17, 2009 by  
Filed under Tips & Tricks

It happens to the best of us. We have a friend or professional handicapper help us out by doing some pro football handicapping for us, and they get it all wrong for an entire week (or two weeks, or month) in a row. This can cost a lot of money, usually resulting in less money for the handicapper as well. Nobody likes to lose a bet, but the thing about betting on sports is that somebody always has to lose. While their job is to assess the odds, they are not professional psychics and cannot be perfect every time.

Many professional handicappers have bad streaks. As a matter of fact, it is probably safe to say that all of them do. When you are trying out a handicapper for the first time or the two of you are relatively new to one another, it is not uncommon for them to offer an extra week or more of free services to make up for what you have lost. It would be impossible to compensate for every loss, but in the event that it looks like you may have been better off without his services most professional ‘cappers’ are willing to make such gestures.

Every handicapping firm is different, and individual handicappers can make their own rules. If things just aren’t working out with a handicapper that you have been using consider the fact that it may be time to move to another one.

Handicapping is an important part of betting, especially for die hard football fans. If you want to employ the help of a handicapper it is important to understand the difference between bad streaks and bad handicapping.