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Handicapping Strategy: Middling

November 19, 2013 by  
Filed under Uncategorized

There are many different kinds of strategies when it comes to betting on sports, but we never know which ones work and which ones do. For those new to sports betting, handicapping is a good way to gather information and analyze it in order to predict the outcome of a sports match. One particular strategy that involves the handicapping skills is to Middle a bet. The reason middling is an often widely used strategy for beginners is that it lowers the risk of losing, or at least it lowers the amount you could end up losing. You would essentially be placing two bets, on the same sports match, but from two different sportsbooks. It sounds more complicated than it really is.

How to Middle a Bet

As mentioned before, you are going to be placing two bets at two different sportsbooks. So, you must be a member of at least two sportsbooks. Sometimes, it is better to be a member of several different sportsbooks, as this will increase your chances of finding two that have different odds for the same matches. It is not uncommon to find that most sports bettors are members of anywhere from 3 to 6 online sportsbooks. This doesn’t mean you have to have a big bankroll in each, that would bankrupt anyone.

Once you find the football match you want to bet on, you will need to look at the odds that each is given on the Point Spread. The Point Spread bet involves taking into account by how many points a team needs to win by or needs to keep the score under to win. After you have both sportsbooks that have different odds, you will simply place your bets. However, you will not be placing both bets on the same team. Instead, you will be placing one bet on the favorite and the other on the underdog. By picking opposing point spreads, you will have ensured a middling bet.

Favorite vs. Underdog

In order to know when to place the bet on the favorite and when to place it on the underdog is quite simple; by looking at the point spreads given at each sportsbook. When you bet on the favorite, you will bet on the lower point spread, and the higher point spread when it comes to the underdog. The higher the point spread is for the underdog, the better, as it gives them better chances of actually accomplishing it.

You must beware though, when the point spreads are really high, it usually means that one team has good chances of blowing them away, points wise.

Three Outcomes of Middling

There are really only three different outcomes when you middle a bet, which is why it is considered to be one of the safer types of bets. It will minimize any losses if you lose, and have the potential to earn you a good payout, even if they are small profits, you are still profiting. The three outcomes are:

  • Win/Win
  • Win/Push
  • Win/Lose

The best outcome possible is the Win/Win; although this has low odds of happening, if it does, your payout will be quite large. Most of the time, you see the Win/Push and Win/Lose where you will either get a small profit, or a small loss.

We will be using the match between the New England Patriots against the Carolina Panthers:

SB1

SB2

Win/Win

This has happened in the past, and it isn’t as rare as many would think. This outcome has the potential to give you the best payout possible based on your bets. This is when both of your bets win.

We have two different sportsbooks, as well as their point spreads. As you can notice, the point spreads for each sportsbook is different, even though it is the same match. This is exactly what you are looking for. In order to have a Win/Win, the match will have to end with only a two point difference in the final score. In other words, the Panthers can only beat the Patriots by 2 points. The way to figure out how much you would win, based on the amount wagered, is:

Team

Spread

Odds

$100

$1000

Panthers -1 -115 $87 $870
Patriots +3 -120 $83 $830

This means that if you bet $100 on each sportsbook, and both wagers win, you would end up with a profit of $170.

Win/Push

Win/Push is when you win one of the bets, but ties the other. These are more common than Win/Win, and will still provide you with a profit, although it won’t be as big. Using the same match and bets:

Team

Spread

Odds

$100

$1000

Panthers -1 -115 $87 $870
Patriots +3 -120 TIE TIE

This means that the Patriots managed to keep the final score difference at exactly 3 points. This means that Panthers still beat the Patriots by more than 1 point, but the Patriots managed to keep the score different at 3 points. You will simply earn an $87 profit, as in the event of a tie, you simply get your money back.

Win/Lose

Depending on what the payout odds are, you will either get a slight profit or a slight loss every time you get a Win/Lose. This is the most common outcome of the three. There are two ways to get a Win/Lose:

  1. The Underdog simply wins the game.
  2. The Favorite beats the Underdog by more points than the point spread.

 

Team

Spread

Odds

$100

$1000

Panthers -1 -115 $87 $870
Patriots +3 -120 Lose Lose

OR

Team

Spread

Odds

$100

$1000

Panthers -1 -115 Lose Lose
Patriots +3 -120 Win Game Win Game

 

With option #1, you will have a slight loss of $13. With option #2, you will still have a slight loss of $17. It all depends on the odds, so always look for the Underdog odds at either EVEN or having a + in front of the odds. This will ensure that you will get a small profit.

Remember:

  • Pick the lowest point spread for the Favorite
  • Pick the highest point spread for the Underdog, unless you find great payout odds with a + in front.

These two points will help you search for the NFL matches that you can middle on effectively. Do not try to middle on close point spreads, as they will always have worse odds of getting a Win/Win.

Money Management Tips

November 19, 2013 by  
Filed under Uncategorized

When it comes to betting on the NFL or other professional football matches, it is important to remember that money is your life line, without any money you will be unable to continue betting or making a profit. This is why we emphasize that money management is one of the most vital aspects that any sports bettor must take into account. The most important rule you should always follow is: Never bet anything you cannot afford to lose. Now that my rant is over, we can get to the tips part of managing your money, or bankroll as you will.

There are different ways of maximizing the use of your current bankroll, as well as ways to limit your losses. Obviously, there are also certain things you should not do when betting that could bankrupt you.

Betting Type

The type of bettor you are will determine how to proceed with safeguarding your finances; whether you are an aggressive bettor or a passive bettor. If you don’t know what type you are, these are three most common types:

  1. Aggressive Bettor. You are the type of person that likes to bet big, especially when you receive a tip on a game. You are impulsive and usually bet from your gut instinct. Although, you also are able to cope with losses much better, and are able to understand the game from a broader perspective.
  2. Passive Bettor. You are the type of person that takes their time placing bets. You will carefully place even the smallest of bets. You rarely place big bets for fear of losing too much money. These bettors tend to overthink and analyze every aspect of the game in order to get an advantage when betting.
  3. Combination Bettors. These are some of the more common types of bettors. You do your research, although you also combine your instinct when betting. You will place small bets on games you are not that interested or invested in; while you place bigger bets on those games that you are confident will win. This type of bettor is what you should all strive for.

Each type comes with their pros and cons, and the biggest con for any type of bettor is how they manage their money.

Bankroll Management

The other aspect that will impact how you place your bets and manage your money is the size of your bankroll. There are all kinds of people that have different bankroll sizes. We hope that the money you put into your bankroll is extra cash you do not need to live on. There are obviously three bankroll sizes, small, medium, and large.

Small

Small bankrolls consist of the minimum deposit amount for each sportsbook (which is around $25) and a few hundred dollars. So, you will really only have about $25 to $500 in your bankroll. When you have small bankrolls, we tend to advise to only use roughly a maximum of 80% of your total bankroll on any given week; if you wish to use less than 80%, you are welcome to. This will ensure you will have a remaining 20%, if you lose all your bets, which will let you get back on your feet. From that 80%, we advise to only use 5% of it on each bet you make. This represents a sizable amount of your bankroll on each bet, but you it is useless or even impossible to place $1 bets.

Medium

Medium bankrolls consist of $500 to about $2,000 (in special cases, it may extend up to $5,000). You have a little more freedom with your money, as you can either place more bets or larger ones. Either way, we still advise you only use up to 70% of your bankroll on any given week, leaving you with 30% to use as a backup. Of that 70%, you should really aim to only use 4% on each wager, or if you want to place fewer wagers with higher amounts, bet a max of 8%.

Large

Large bankrolls consist of $5,000 and up. You may think that your money will last forever, but without a proper plan, losses will turn into bankruptcy, especially if you like placing large bets. With bankrolls of this size, we advise to only use about 60% of your total bankroll per week; if you go over that amount, it could affect you negatively. From those 60%, use roughly anywhere from 4% to 8% on each bet. Pick which bets you are most confident on, and place the larger 8% bets on those.

Guide to Remember

This simple table will help you remember everything we just spoke of, so use it!

Bankroll Size

% of Bankroll used per Week

% of Bankroll used per Bet

Small ($25-$500) 80% 5%
Medium ($500-$5,000) 70% 4% small bets / 8% large bets
Large ($5,000+) 60% 4% small bets / 8% large bets

 

Things NOT To Do

The easiest way of helping someone, especially with their finances, is to tell them what NOT to do. There are different aspects of sports betting that will always be present, and this will have an impact on how you bet, which will affect your money.

Blind Betting

When you place a bet, do not place it just because you wanted to or you felt like it. Sure, you could do this if you have the money to throw around, but most don’t. Always be sure to research and follow up on the teams you want to bet on. This will make predicting the winner, as well as giving you more confidence of your wager. After you place a bet, even if you lose, ask yourself “Would I place that same bet again?” If the answer is yes, then you were confident that you bet would win. If it is a no, you need to reevaluate how you are picking your bets, whether you need to change up the way you handicap. This is the fastest way of losing all of your money.

Get Rich Quick Thinking

Many people who start betting on the NFL tend to believe what movies tell them, that you can place a big bet, win big, and retire happy. That, however, is the biggest load of crap anyone could believe. If you want to make betting into a part-time job, as many successful bettors have, you will need to be patient. Betting is a little like the stock market, if you want to make a steady profit, you need to play the long game. For those of you who think you can quit your day job and solely place bets to make a living, that is the wrong way of thinking.

Keep Emotions in Check

You need to be able to view all bets in a rational manner. This is why you should never let your feelings get involved. The number one way of doing this is by following the golden rule of never betting anything you cannot afford to lose. This will allow you to accept any losses, as well as take any profits and use them effectively. If you get angry or stressed, take a breather, as that could cause you to try desperately to regain any losses.

Once Again, Mixing Finances

I just have to say it again. Never mix your finances. Always use money you can afford to lose!

Two Ways of Handicapping: Technical vs. Fundamental

November 19, 2013 by  
Filed under Uncategorized

In the world of sports betting, especially when you want to bet on the highly competitive and unpredictable NFL matches, there is always the necessity of getting an accurate prediction of the outcome. One of the most popular and famous ways of acquiring this prediction is through handicapping. We should all know what handicapping is, but for those that don’t, handicapping is when you use information, analyze it, and come up with a prediction based on that information. The prediction will give you confidence to place your bets.

However, there are two different ways of handicapping, technical and fundamental handicapping. These two types of handicapping are not mutually exclusive, so you can use one, the other, or both when handicapping. Great handicappers use whatever works for them, so they pick the best parts of each. How accurate each of these types of handicapping is depends on the one using them. Being able to use the best information that applies directly to the upcoming match is quite important.

Technical Handicapping

Technical handicapping is considered to be the more scientific and math based handicapping. This type uses all of the different numbers and statistics that can be found based around professional football. If you have ever gone to one of the sports website, you will find endless amounts of data and numbers on anything and everything. This information is what this type of handicapping uses in order to come to a conclusion and get its prediction. Some of the factors that are included in this type are:

  • Offense/Defense Statistics. These statistics and numbers are based on how a NFL team plays as a whole. You will see various different Offense and Defense stats as well. These include stats like overall points scored and scored against, as well as yards passed/run and total yards. These numbers can give you a general feel for how a team performs, which is how the NFL ranks the team’s offense and defense.
  • Player Statistics. These are much more specific stats, based on the individual performance of each player on the NFL teams. This allows you to know how well or bad a player has performed so far in the league. These stats can let handicappers know which are the key players that could change the outcome of a game.
  • Overall Team Statistics. These stats are based more around performances such as 1st down conversions, time of ball possession, and turnover ratio; among many others. These stats give handicappers a view into the on-field performance. Teams that have better turnover ratio tend to have more opportunities to score, etc.

There are other stats and numbers that you can find about a NFL team or matchup.

Fundamental Handicapping

Fundamental handicapping is the type of handicapping that takes into consideration the general outlook of a team’s performance. In other words, it takes into account everything that cannot be quantified through numbers and statistics. Some of these factors in fundamental handicapping are:

  • Injuries. You could use include injuries in technical handicapping, but it is more often used in fundamental handicapping. Looking at how the overall performance of a team could be affected by a players injury cannot be quantified (it can, but very hard to do). Especially when the injured player is one of those key game changing players.
  • New Reports. News reports give fundamental handicappers a lot of information. They can read up on how a NFL player is having a rough time dealing with depression or is having a hard time adapting to the weather; even reports on whether a player is coming off of a cold is valuable information. These reports give information beyond what you can see when looking at numbers.
  • Weather. Who would have thought that the weather played such an important role in the NFL. This applies more often with uncovered stadiums, as they are always being bombarded by the effects of weather. For instance, during the Super Bowl, winter is in full swing, and the cold, snow, high winds, and any other factor like that could affect the gameplay.

Fundamental handicapping takes these extra factors into account and uses them to predict the performance of the NFL teams.

Combination Handicapping

When you start handicapping the NFL games, you want to strive to use both of these types. Be able to look at the numbers and stats, as well as the outside factors, and put them together to make a valuable and confident prediction. This will certainly give you an advantage when handicapping and betting. Combining both types of handicapping will take some effort and time, but as time passes by you will reap the rewards.

For those that believe that handicapping cannot accurately predict the outcome of a NFL match is somewhat right, but I would rather have a well thought prediction than basing my decision on my gut. No betting system is 100% accurate, but it can certainly help narrow down the choices. Use handicapping methods and strategies to enhance this knowledge.

Ways to Handicap the NFL

November 4, 2013 by  
Filed under Uncategorized

Handicapping is a method of predicting the outcome of a sporting event by looking at all of the information presently available for the two teams involved. In this case, we are looking at the NFL matches in order to try and predict the match winner. Being able to properly handicap will give you an advantage when placing your bets, as you will have a more thorough knowledge of the teams involved. This does not, however, give a 100% accurate prediction. A prediction is an educated guess on what might happen during a match, and as we all know, NFL matches are very unpredictable.

There are several factors you should take into consideration when handicapping.

 

Analyzing the Statistics

Many handicapper’s use numbers in order to predict a future outcome, and the main weapon in their arsenal are statistics. There are tons of different statistics that can help during a match.

    1. Team Stats. Team stats are those general statistics that you can find relating to how well the team performed as a team. This means average scores, for and against, total yards, rushing yards, and passing yards. These stats will give you a very broad view of what each team’s strengths and weaknesses are, and you can use that to create a preliminary prediction by comparing the two teams overall stats against each other. Other team stats include:
      • 1st Downs / 3rd Downs
      • Offensive Plays and Average Yards
      • Field Goals
      • Touchdowns
      • Time of Possession
      • Turnover Ratio
    2. Player Stats. Player stats are the individual performance figures for each player on a team. For instance, for a quarterback you have stats that include total yards, pass completions vs. attempts, sacks, interceptions, and then their overall QB rating. You can look up the individual stats for any player on the team. These stats can help you determine which key players are necessary in the team’s offense or defense. You can even compare them against their opposing player, like a WR and the Cornerback.

 

    1. Turnover Ratio. This is part of the team statistics, but is actually an important number to always keep in mind. The reason is that the ratio gives you a good insight into whether the team has good ball possession or not, and whether they are able to maintain/regain possession of the ball. It is a rough way of looking at whether a team is prone to losing the ball, or if they do a good job of keeping the ball. The more times a team has possession, the more opportunities they have of scoring. You can compare this ratio to the number of times they actually score, or they keep their opponents from scoring to give you a better look at how they take advantage of the turnover ratio.

 

  1. Special Teams. Special teams usually don’t play that long or often in a match, but the small amount of time they are on the field, they must perform at their best or bad things could happen. Special teams include kick-off team, punts, and field goals. There are many times that a game is decided by a field goal, so don’t underestimate their importance on the field.

 

Tips to Successfully Handicap

Even though looking at the numbers is important, there is more to predicting and handicapping than just analyzing the numbers. Here a few tips to keep in mind as you place your NFL bets.

  • Watch the games! There is no better way to understand how a team plays than actually watching them play. This is why you should watch the NFL matches on a regular basis, even if you only watch the teams that you are more interested in. It is a good way to get information on how well the team plays together, whether there is chemistry between the QB and his WR’s, or if the defense has a good sense of their roles. Also, you get to enjoy all the competitiveness that makes football such a great sport.
  • Underdogs make great bets. When you visit your sportsbook, you will notice that there are obvious and sometimes not so obvious favorites. When there is a close match, you can actually see it in the odds. Placing a bet on an underdog during a close match is actually a good bet, as you could end up winning much more for the same bet. We all know that a football match in unpredictable, so that means even the underdogs have a chance of winning. Always make a good prediction, and if it points at the underdog, don’t hesitate!
  • Injuries. Many handicappers will argue whether injuries are important or not to take into consideration, I’ll leave the final decision up to you to use them or not. If a 2nd or 3rd string player gets injured, it doesn’t impact a team much or even at all. However, when one of those star players get an injury, it can weigh heavily on the team. Consider a team like Dallas Cowboys. Their running plays mostly revolve around DeMarco Murray, so what would happen to their running offense if he were to get injured. These are the type of questions looking at the injury reports can help with.
  • Weather reports. Weather is another factor that flies under the radar. The weather can actually have a great impact on the way a team performs. Windy or icy conditions can take its toll on the athletic performance of the players, and can even affect the ball and its handling.